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India's GDP Estimate

At constant (2004-05) prices Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 12,27,254 crore as against Rs. 11,48,472 crore in Q2 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 19,55,880 crore, as against Rs. 16,85,793 crore in Q2, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.0 per cent. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11 are, electricity, gas and water supply at 9.8 per cent, trade, hotels, transport and communication at 9.9 per cent and financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 10.5 per cent. The estimated growth rates in other economic activities in this quarter are 3.2 per cent in agriculture, forestry & fishing, 2.7 per cent in manufacturing and 4.3 per cent in construction and 6.6 per cent in community, social and personal services. The growth of mining and quarrying sector declined to (- )2.9 per cent during this period. The decrease in the growth of GDP in second quarter of 2011-12 is largely due to the negative growth in mining and quarrying and steep fall in the growth of manufacturing sector, as compared to their levels of growth in Q2 of 2010-11.

According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2011-12 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 16.9.2011, the production of rice and oilseeds is expected to grow by 8.0% and 0.2% respectively whereas the production of coarse cereals and pulses is expected to decline by (-) 6.2% and (-) 9.7% respectively, during the Kharif season of 2011- 12 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2010-11. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which show growth in the range of 3-4%.

According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 2.7 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2010-11. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 3.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, passenger handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 21.3 per cent, 0.9 per cent, 17.2 per cent and 36.4 percent, respectively in Q2 of 2011- 12 over Q2 of 2010-11. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 21.1 per cent and 23.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11.

ESTIMATES OF GDP BY EXPENDITURE MEATHOD

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 12,43,681 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 10,71,221 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 7,85,463 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 7,41,624 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 59.6 per cent and 59.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.4 per cent and 59.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,22,356 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,96,498 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,40,883 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,35,400 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.7 per cent each as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 per cent each in Q2 of 2010-11.


MARKET CAPITALISATION AND GDP INDEPTH

Market capitalisation to GDP ratio at current price is .78 which is slightly near to comfort zone and we expect the stock market valuation to be only slightly out of fair value.
Note:-The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2011 (Q3 of 2011-12) will be on 29.02.2012.

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